Below are a few lessons learned by an Obama foot soldier in the Virginia Primary, part of Obama's Potomac Trifecta last Tuesday.

Bottom line: coming only one week after Super Tuesday, the Obama campaign in the Potomac Primary had to depend heavily on local volunteers and locally produced campaign materials. The professional staffers arrived in time for a solid weekend of directing phone banking, canvassing, and visibility efforts. In contrast, there was virtually no sign of a Hillary ground game or advertising presence.

The result was an encouraging 64-36 Obama win in Virginia.

A few specific links and suggestions below the break may be of some use to local volunteer efforts for Obama in Texas and Oklahoma.

Actually, with 93.52% of the votes counted, Dems got more than twice as many votes as the GOP in VA, according to the Virginia State Board of Elections.

Voter turnout is 919,565 for the Democrats.  Just 446,763 voted for the Republicans. That means that a whopping 67.3% voted for the Dems. Obama's vote total was almost 150,000 votes higher than all of the Republicans combined. And while it was a rough night for Senator Clinton, she beat McCain by almost 100,000 votes.

As a Democrat, you've got to love these overall numbers, particularly in a (former?) Red state....

Barack Obama is not my candidate, but he is racking up some victories of late.  Everyone expected him to win the Potomac Primary trifecta, but the margins are surprising.

I have had my problems with Senator Obama, and I currently support Senator Clinton (after initially supporting Senator Edwards).  And I still support Hillary, very much so.

But I just finished watching Barack Obama's speech in Wisconsin.  And I have to say, I was not only inspired, but I was impressed.  

The biggest news coming from the Virginia Primary isn't the margin of victory. It's that Independents are flocking to Obama in droves leaving McCain high and dry. I just heard an analyses of the voting paterns in  Virginia's Open Primary on NPR and it stated empathically that most Independents and even some moderate Republicans are voting for Obama. This is a big reason why John McCain's vote margin over Mike Huckabee is a relatively small one

You can listen to that report here

The implications of Obama's appeal to Independents and moderate Republicans can't be overstated for the general election next Fall. This should be the best news of the whole primary season for Democrats.

This is probably also the death knell for Hillary Clinton's campaign.  Democrats in Ohio Pennsylvania, Texas and the other states are very likely to rally around Obama as the strongest candidate for next Fall. I don't have to tell you how badly Democrats want one of our own in the White House next January.

With 98% reporting it's:

Obama      606,937 votes  

McCain      238,738 votes

Clinton      339,866 votes

Huckabee  194,641 votes

The VA exit poll shows an interesting pattern:

Republicans way more for Obama than Democrats? Are they "liberal" Republicans?

Apparently not, with Obama doing least well among liberals:

So it can be seen that a number of conservative Republicans/Independents came out in Virginia to vote for Obama. One has to wonder on what basis can it be said that his campaign represents a progressive coalition. Certainly it represents a coalition, but can it be argued that it's a progressive one?

Let's call them Pam, Dave, Sally and Fred. That's not their real names, but let's call them that. All four are over 50. All four have been Democrats since casting their vote for Jimmy Carter in 1976 (in one case, since McGovern in 1972). They voted for Mondale, Dukakis and Kerry. They despise Bush, always did, and oppose the Iraq war. They support universal health care and support abortion rights.

And worse, they will vote for McCain if Hillary doesn't get the Democratic nomination

I live in the precinct adjacent to teacherken in Arlington, VA.  I got up very early (for me) this morning to get voting out of the way.  In 2006, I got in line to vote at 7:15 a.m. but did not vote until 8:00 a.m. and I was in the 300-350 range of voters.

This morning, I went to vote at 6:50 a.m. (just about 25 minutes earlier).  Turnout on the flip.

this is being posted both at Daily Kos and at Raising Kaine

Tomorrow is the Potomac Primary as our three regional events are now commonly being called.

The thoughts offered below the fold are personal, a combination of anecdotal and analytical, and are probably worth less than what you pay for them, which of course is nothing.  Still, upon awakening after my first 8-hour sleep in more than a month, it is thoughts like these that are on my mind as I head for a day of school in which I do no teaching:  my AP students are in a computer lab and my regular students have a test, and school is closed tomorrow for Maryland's primary.

So if you are curious at the thoughts on my mind, come along for the ride.  Although if you are in Virginia, Maryland or DC, consider going and doing some volunteer work for your candidate - that is more important than reading me, and I don't mind if you do it for Clinton, because she will need all the help she can get.

Two Survey USA polls were released yesterday for February 12 primary states, with good news for Obama.

Virginia. 2/7-8. 588 Likely Voters. MoE 4.1%. No trend lines.

In Virginia, Clinton leads in seniors, Obama in voters under age 65. The two candidates are tied for white voters; Obama leads 7:1 among black voters. He also leads among both men and women.

Maryland. 2/7-8. 737 Likely Voters. MoE 3.7%. No trend lines.

In Maryland, the two candidates split white voters, with Obama leading 4:1 among blacks. Clinton leads among seniors by 15 points, Obama leads by 39 points among voters 35-49. SUSA cautions: "If younger voters do not vote in the numbers here forecast, Obama’s margin is overstated."

I suspect the Old Dominion will be the ground on which Clinton chooses to fight for the Potomac Primary on Tuesday.  It is her best Demographics.  The state is only 19.9% black, compared to Maryland's 29.5% and of course DC is majority black, and the popular new mayor is actively working the city for Obama.  

Maine is about as white as a state gets, with less than 1% of the population being black.   What will be of greater importance is the other demographic characteristics of the state, which may give Clinton something of an advantage she is unlikely to experience in any other state until Texas and Ohio in March.

In this diary I will explore some data from the US Census Bureau, their quick facts from 2006, with the data from both Maine and Virginia.  I will also offer some observations as a resident of the Old Dominion since 1982.

Come along for the ride.

I realize a lot of people are looking forward to Texas and Ohio.   And many will give Clinton an edge in Texas because of the large Hispanic population and possibly in Ohio because of the supporter of the Governor and many other notables as well as how hard hit the state has been by unemployment.   And Bill Clinton won the state twice.  

But here's the thing

1. there are a series of contests between now and February 19, and then a 2-week layoff before March 4 when TX and OH and RI and VT vote

3. I would think Obama is positioned to do very well in most of the intervening events (with the real battleground being the Potomac primary next week)

4. and success in those would fuel the momentum he seems to already have

(more)

With the February 12th Chesapeake Primary (VA/DC/MD) developing into the potential final showdown in the Democratic Presidential Nomination process (assuming a mixed result on Super Tuesday) because Senator Obama appears to have a strong advantage in MD and DC, Virginia grassroots volunteers are apparently becoming a major threat to Hillary Clinton's National Headquarters in Arlington (near Ballston metro stop) despite having no office space of their own until today.

That's because they booked the office space that has previously been used by Obama volunteers on sunday despite having no intention of using it.

For white male high school grads, average wages stood at $18.44 an hour (in constant 2006 dollars) in 1979. They dropped to $16.06 an hour in 1995. There was then a brief upturn -- wages for such men hit $17.49 in 2002 -- but by 2006, their hourly earnings had fallen to $17.31. White female high school graduates have gained ground, but their wages have recently stagnated too. In 1979, such women earned $11.75 an hour. Their wages peaked at $13.42 in 2003, but dropped to $13.08 in 2006. Similar patterns, at somewhat higher wage levels, are visible over the years for men and women who attended college but didn't graduate.

I quote from today's Washington Post. E. J. Dionne wrote A Demographic the Democrats Can't Forget.  As I read it, I thought about the past candidates able to appeal to this demographic, most clearly Bobby Kennedy and Ronald Reagan.

Yes I am uncommitted.  I live in Virginia.   We vote on February 12.  As of yet I have no reason to choose among the three remaining candidates.  My choices may be narrowed either by the results of the contests before then, or by things one or more of the candidates says or does, or actions taken or not taken by their campaigns.

But in the meantime there are things about which I do not give a damn.  And there are things about which I care deeply.

The blathering in this diary is personal   It is solely my perspective.  And I acknowledge the arrogance in putting it forth.  But I suspect I am not alone in many of my perceptions, and perhaps by sharing them some of you who are strong advocates for or against a particular candidate will understand why your diaries have a tendency to piss off many of us here.

I invite you to continue reading, but only if you are willing to do so with a willingness to listen.  

Peace.